A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
